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The 2022 projections from the United Nations Population Division (chart #1) show that annual world population growth peaked at 2.3% per year in 1963, has since dropped to 0.9% in 2023, equivalent to about 74 million people each year, and could drop even further to minus 0.1% by 2100. [5]
The table below shows annual population growth rate history and projections for various areas, countries, regions and sub-regions from various sources for various time periods. The right-most column shows a projection for the time period shown using the medium fertility variant. Preceding columns show actual history.
P 0 = P(0) is the initial population size, r = the population growth rate, which Ronald Fisher called the Malthusian parameter of population growth in The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, [2] and Alfred J. Lotka called the intrinsic rate of increase, [3] [4] t = time. The model can also be written in the form of a differential equation:
The Hubbert curve [2] is the first derivative of a logistic function, which has been used for modeling the depletion of crude oil in particular, the depletion of finite mineral resources in general [3] and also population growth patterns. [4] Example of a Hubbert Linearization on the US Lower-48 crude oil production.
The national 1 July, mid-year population estimates (usually based on past national censuses) supplied in these tables are given in thousands. The retrospective figures use the present-day names and world political division: for example, the table gives data for each of the 15 republics of the former Soviet Union, as if they had already been independent in 1950.
One of the most basic and milestone models of population growth was the logistic model of population growth formulated by Pierre François Verhulst in 1838. The logistic model takes the shape of a sigmoid curve and describes the growth of a population as exponential, followed by a decrease in growth, and bound by a carrying capacity due to ...
Under the logistic model, population growth rate between these two limits is most often assumed to be sigmoidal (Figure 1). There is scientific evidence that some populations do grow in a logistic fashion towards a stable equilibrium – a commonly cited example is the logistic growth of yeast. The equation describing logistic growth is: [13]
Graph of world population over the past 12,000 years . As a general rule, the confidence of estimates on historical world population decreases for the more distant past. Robust population data exist only for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census.