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The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan a U.S. congressional district or U.S. state is. [1] This partisanship is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, [2] compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.
Partisan lean of U.S. states according to Gallup polling [6] Number of U.S. States Year Solid Dem Lean Dem Competitive Lean GOP Solid GOP Net Dem 2008 29 6 10 1 4 +30 2009 23 10 12 1 4 +28 2010 13 9 18 5 5 +12 2011 11 7 15 7 10 +1 2012 13 6 19 3 9 +7 2013 12 5 19 2 12 +3 2014 11 6 18 5 10 +2 2015 11 3 16 8 12 −6 2016 13 1 15 7 14 −7 2017 15 ...
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Note: The partisan lean of districts is calculated based on voting data from national and local elections from 2016 to 2022. Districts with less than 5% difference in Republican and Democratic ...
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 8, 2022, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...