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RCP 2.6 is a "very stringent" pathway. [6] According to the IPCC, RCP 2.6 requires that carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions start declining by 2020 and go to zero by 2100.It also requires that methane emissions (CH 4) go to approximately half the CH 4 levels of 2020, and that sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions decline to approximately 10% of those of 1980–1990.
Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. [40]
The predecessor of the IPCC was the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG). [18] Three organizations set up the AGGG in 1986. These were the International Council of Scientific Unions, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Each data point represents an average of simulated values generated from five integrated assessment models. [1] Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 as defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change in 2021. [2]
Average IPCC AR5 climate model projections for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, under low and high emission scenarios. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the fifth in a series of such reports and was completed in 2014. [1]
This activity enabled those climate models, outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). For the CMIP3 a list of 20 different experiments were proposed, [3] and the PCMDI kept the documentation of all the global climate model involved. [4]
The IPCC stated in 2010 it has increased confidence in forecasts coming from climate models: "There is considerable confidence that climate models provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has relied on process-based integrated assessment models to quantify mitigation scenarios. [13] [14] They have been used to explore different pathways for staying within climate policy targets such as the 1.5 °C target agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. [15]