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The co-leaders of the GJP include Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers and Don Moore. [1] The website lists a total of about 30 team members, including the co-leaders as well as David Budescu, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron, and prediction-markets entrepreneur Emile Servan-Schreiber. [14]
As Philip Tetlock, a U.C. Berkeley professor who studies expert predictions, put it, most experts could be beaten by a "dart-throwing chimp." ... Japan's stock market and real estate market ...
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019.
One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider. There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a ...
Election prediction markets are a type of prediction market in which the ultimate values of the contracts being traded are based on the outcome of elections. The main purpose of an election stock market is to predict the election outcome, such as the share of the popular vote or share of seats each political party receives in a legislature or ...
The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. Even if those people are not well informed, collective ...