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Butterfly effect image. The butterfly effect describes a phenomenon in chaos theory whereby a minor change in circumstances can cause a large change in outcome. The scientific concept is attributed to Edward Lorenz, a mathematician and meteorologist who used the metaphor to describe his research findings related to chaos theory and weather prediction, [1] [2] initially in a 1972 paper titled ...
Predictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made, either qualitatively or quantitatively.
In these cases, while it is often the most practically significant property, "sensitivity to initial conditions" need not be stated in the definition. If attention is restricted to intervals, the second property implies the other two. [27] An alternative and a generally weaker definition of chaos uses only the first two properties in the above ...
A plot of Lorenz' strange attractor for values ρ=28, σ = 10, β = 8/3. The butterfly effect or sensitive dependence on initial conditions is the property of a dynamical system that, starting from any of various arbitrarily close alternative initial conditions on the attractor, the iterated points will become arbitrarily spread out from each other.
Many decades of empirical research on return predictability has found mixed evidence. Research in the 1950s and 1960s often found a lack of predictability (e.g. Ball and Brown 1968; Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll 1969), yet the 1980s-2000s saw an explosion of discovered return predictors (e.g. Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein 1985; Campbell and ...
Israeli, Navot, and Nigel Goldenfeld, "On computational irreducibility and the predictability of complex physical systems". Physical Review Letters, 2004. " "Computational Irreducibility". ISAAC/EINSTein research and development. Archived from the original on 2011-12-11. Berger, David, "Stephen Wolfram, A New Kind of Science". Serendip's ...
Predictive modelling uses statistics to predict outcomes. [1] Most often the event one wants to predict is in the future, but predictive modelling can be applied to any type of unknown event, regardless of when it occurred.
Predictive analytics, or predictive AI, encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.