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Calculus of voting refers to any mathematical model which predicts voting behaviour by an electorate, including such features as participation rate. A calculus of ...
Multi-winner electoral systems at their best seek to produce assemblies representative in a broader sense than that of making the same decisions as would be made by single-winner votes. They can also be route to one-party sweeps of a city's seats, if a non-proportional system, such as plurality block voting or ticket voting, is used.
A lower house (the House of Commons), the members of which are chosen by the citizens of Canada through federal general elections. Elections Canada is the non-partisan agency responsible for the conduct of elections in Canada, including federal elections, by-elections and referendums. It is headed by the chief electoral officer.
As Rishi Sunak’s party lags Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour by 18 points in the polls, it is on course to win 159 seats, Electoral Calculus predicts – down from the 365 it captured in 2019.
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
Canada's first recorded election was held in Halifax in 1758 to elect the 1st General Assembly of Nova Scotia. [1] All Canadian citizens aged 18 or older who currently reside in Canada as of the polling day [2] (or at any point in their life have resided in Canada, regardless of time away) may vote in federal elections. [3]
When discussing the likelihood of a particular electoral outcome, political forecasters tend to use one of a small range of shorthand phrases. [8] [9] [10] These include: Solid (e.g., "Solid Republican"), also Safe. Very unlikely that the party which currently holds the seat will change in the upcoming election.
An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system .