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Each of the last eight U.S. recessions dating back to the 1960s has come after the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the three-month Treasury yield, for example.
With the recent uninversion of the yield curve after years of being inverted, the clock has started ticking, Spitznagel warned. "That's when you enter black swan territory," he said.
The U.S. federal government is projected to spend $870 billion, or 3.1% of GDP, on interest payments for its debt this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office — more than the entire ...
In 2018, The Wall Street Journal reported that "a strategy consisting of just a 3.3% position in Universa with the rest invested passively in the S&P 500 index had a compound annual return of 12.3% in the 10 years through February (2018), far better than the S&P 500 itself" (and portfolios with "more traditional hedges").
Mark Spitznagel (/ ˈ s p ɪ t s n eɪ ɡ əl /; born March 5, 1971) is an American investor and hedge fund manager.He is the founder, owner, and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, a hedge fund management firm based in Miami, Florida.
One example of a "Black Swan" fund is Universa, which was founded by Mark Spitznagel and advised by Nicholas Taleb. [1] [2] During the 2007–2008 financial crisis the fund posted returns of over 100%. [3] In August 2015, Universa Investments made more than $1 billion in profits in one week, representing a 20% YTD return. [4]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.
Christopher "Chris" Voss (born 28 November 1957) is an American businessman, author, and academic. Voss is a former FBI hostage negotiator, the CEO of The Black Swan Group Ltd, a company registered in East Grinstead, England, [1] and co-author of the book Never Split the Difference. [2]