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Each of the last eight U.S. recessions dating back to the 1960s has come after the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the three-month Treasury yield, for example.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.
The stock market crashed last month on recession fears but has since soared to fresh record highs as the Federal Reserve began cutting rates and China unveiled stimulus measures.. To Mark ...
Mark Spitznagel (/ ˈ s p ɪ t s n eɪ ɡ əl /; born March 5, 1971) is an American investor and hedge fund manager.He is the founder, owner, and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, a hedge fund management firm based in Miami, Florida.
A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
[4] [5] [7] [8] The two of them previously ran Empirica Capital, a hedge fund that closed in 2004 due to subpar returns. [4] [6] [8] Universa was launched with $300 million under management and traded out of a small office in Santa Monica, California. [4] [5] Software programs were developed to search the options markets for deals. [5]
Nassim Taleb, who wrote the book The Black Swan, warned that markets should expect an even worse shock than the one that sank stocks after the release of DeepSeek's AI technology. Nassim Taleb ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.