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Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024 [update] , all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors .
In 2021, evidence for a probable impact 3.46 billion-years ago at Pilbara Craton has been found in the form of a 150 kilometres (93 mi) crater created by the impact of a 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) asteroid (named "The Apex Asteroid") into the sea at a depth of 2.5 kilometres (1.6 mi) (near the site of Marble Bar, Western Australia). [52]
The soonest virtual impactor of an asteroid larger than 50 meters in diameter with a better than 1:1-million chance of impact is 2022 PX 1 on 11 August 2040 with a 1: 330 000 chance of impact. [8] It is estimated to be 120-meters in diameter, has a short observation arc of 3.1-days, and is expected to be 1.78 AU (266 million km ) from Earth on ...
Less than ten thousand years old, and with a diameter of 100 m (330 ft) or more. The EID lists fewer than ten such craters, and the largest in the last 100,000 years (100 ka) is the 4.5 km (2.8 mi) Rio Cuarto crater in Argentina. [2]
An impact winter is a hypothesized period of prolonged cold weather due to the impact of a large asteroid or comet on the Earth's surface. If an asteroid were to strike land or a shallow body of water, it would eject an enormous amount of dust, ash, and other material into the atmosphere , blocking the radiation from the Sun .
Kinetic impactors such as the one used by the Double Asteroid Redirection Test – its impact with the asteroid moon Dimorphos photographed above – are one of many methods designed to alter the trajectory of an asteroid to prevent its potential collision with Earth. Damage caused by the Tunguska event. The object was 50-80 meters (150-240 ...
2023 CX 1 is the seventh asteroid discovered before being successfully predicted to impact Earth, and also the third whose meteorites were collected after its predicted impact. [ 6 ] [ 17 ] It is Sárneczky's second discovery of an impacting asteroid, after 2022 EB 5 which he discovered a year prior in March 2022.