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The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect [2] or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case). [3]
Base rates are used less if there is relevant individuating information. [18] Groups have been found to neglect base rate more than individuals do. [19] Use of base rates differs based on context. [20] Research on use of base rates has been inconsistent, with some authors suggesting a new model is necessary. [21]
Exemplification theory is a simple combination of these heuristics. It posits that since exemplars come to mind more easily than base-rates when accessing information, available exemplars will dominate base-rate information when making judgments of event populations. [6] Behavioral intentions are the direct determinants of behaviors. [7]
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
Base-Rate heuristic. The process that involves using common mental shortcuts that help a decision to be made based on known probabilities. For example, if an animal is heard howling in a large city, it is usually assumed to be a dog because the probability that a wolf is in a large city is very low. [25] Peak-and-end heuristic. When past ...
In another example of near-total neglect of probability, Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) found that the typical subject was willing to pay $10 to avoid a 99% chance of a painful electric shock, and $7 to avoid a 1% chance of the same shock. They suggest that probability is more likely to be neglected when the outcomes are emotion-arousing.
Equally experienced viewers of the show "E.R." were less likely to recall information about the set and be able to mentally orient themselves inside it, because the show is filmed from many different angles. [12] In one study, [13] observers were instructed to look at short movies involving changes in point of view. They used 15 movie clips ...
For example, in collectivistic cultures, decisions may be made based on what is best for the group, whereas in individualistic cultures, decisions may prioritize individual needs and desires. Overall, decision making is a complex process that involves many factors, including emotion, risk, pragmatics, and cultural background.