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Stan is a probabilistic programming language for statistical inference written in C++; ArviZ a Python library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi is a high-level Bayesian model-building interface based on PyMC
Variational Bayesian methods are a family of techniques for approximating intractable integrals arising in Bayesian inference and machine learning.They are typically used in complex statistical models consisting of observed variables (usually termed "data") as well as unknown parameters and latent variables, with various sorts of relationships among the three types of random variables, as ...
The reparameterization trick (aka "reparameterization gradient estimator") is a technique used in statistical machine learning, particularly in variational inference, variational autoencoders, and stochastic optimization.
The likelihood estimate needs to be as large as possible; because it's a lower bound, getting closer improves the approximation of the log likelihood. By substituting in the factorized version of , (), parameterized over the hidden nodes as above, is simply the negative relative entropy between and plus other terms independent of if is defined as
In Bayesian inference, the Bernstein–von Mises theorem provides the basis for using Bayesian credible sets for confidence statements in parametric models.It states that under some conditions, a posterior distribution converges in total variation distance to a multivariate normal distribution centered at the maximum likelihood estimator ^ with covariance matrix given by (), where is the true ...
In numerous publications on Bayesian experimental design, it is (often implicitly) assumed that all posterior probabilities will be approximately normal. This allows for the expected utility to be calculated using linear theory, averaging over the space of model parameters. [2]
Empirical Bayes methods can be seen as an approximation to a fully Bayesian treatment of a hierarchical Bayes model.. In, for example, a two-stage hierarchical Bayes model, observed data = {,, …,} are assumed to be generated from an unobserved set of parameters = {,, …,} according to a probability distribution ().
The BIC is formally defined as [3] [a] = (^). where ^ = the maximized value of the likelihood function of the model , i.e. ^ = (^,), where {^} are the parameter values that maximize the likelihood function and is the observed data;