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  2. Mean percentage error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_percentage_error

    Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.

  3. Mean absolute percentage error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_absolute_percentage_error

    It is a measure used to evaluate the performance of regression or forecasting models. It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3]

  4. Symmetric mean absolute percentage error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symmetric_mean_absolute...

    The following example illustrates this by applying the second SMAPE formula: Over-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 110 give SMAPE = 4.76% Under-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 90 give SMAPE = 5.26%.

  5. Propagation of uncertainty - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty

    Any non-linear differentiable function, (,), of two variables, and , can be expanded as + +. If we take the variance on both sides and use the formula [11] for the variance of a linear combination of variables ⁡ (+) = ⁡ + ⁡ + ⁡ (,), then we obtain | | + | | +, where is the standard deviation of the function , is the standard deviation of , is the standard deviation of and = is the ...

  6. Errors and residuals - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Errors_and_residuals

    For example, if the mean height in a population of 21-year-old men is 1.75 meters, and one randomly chosen man is 1.80 meters tall, then the "error" is 0.05 meters; if the randomly chosen man is 1.70 meters tall, then the "error" is −0.05 meters.

  7. Forecast error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast_error

    Examples of forecasting errors [ edit ] Michael Fish - A few hours before the Great Storm of 1987 broke, on 15 October 1987, he said during a forecast: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way.

  8. Observational error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observational_error

    Random errors or statistical errors in measurement lead to measurable values being inconsistent between repeated measurements of a constant attribute or quantity are taken. Random errors create measurement uncertainty .

  9. Probability of error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_error

    For a Type I error, it is shown as α (alpha) and is known as the size of the test and is 1 minus the specificity of the test. This quantity is sometimes referred to as the confidence of the test, or the level of significance (LOS) of the test.

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