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Tracking signal. In statistics and management science, a tracking signal monitors any forecasts that have been made in comparison with actuals, and warns when there are unexpected departures of the outcomes from the forecasts. Forecasts can relate to sales, inventory, or anything pertaining to an organization's future demand.
The 5% Value at Risk of a hypothetical profit-and-loss probability density function. Value at risk (VaR) is a measure of the risk of loss of investment/Capital. It estimates how much a set of investments might lose (with a given probability), given normal market conditions, in a set time period such as a day. VaR is typically used by firms and ...
Earned value management is a project management technique for measuring project performance and progress. It has the ability to combine measurements of the project management triangle: scope, time, and costs. In a single integrated system, EVM is able to provide accurate forecasts of project performance problems, which is an important aspect of ...
In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average or moving mean[1] or rolling mean) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different selections of the full data set. Variations include: simple, cumulative, or weighted forms. Mathematically, a moving average is a type of convolution.
Exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time.
A return period, also known as a recurrence interval or repeat interval, is an average time or an estimated average time between events such as earthquakes, floods, [1] landslides, [2] or river discharge flows to occur. It is a statistical measurement typically based on historic data over an extended period, and is used usually for risk analysis.
Event study. An event study is a statistical method to assess the impact of an event (also referred to as a "treatment"). [1] Early prominent uses of event studies occurred in the field of finance. [1] For example, the announcement of a merger between two business entities can be analyzed to see whether investors believe the merger will create ...
Tail value at risk. In financial mathematics, tail value at risk (TVaR), also known as tail conditional expectation (TCE) or conditional tail expectation (CTE), is a risk measure associated with the more general value at risk. It quantifies the expected value of the loss given that an event outside a given probability level has occurred.