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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
Without this adjustment, Harris and Trump would be tied at 44.0 percent nationally (based on polls conducted since July 22 and released by Aug. 1). But Harris's margin is about 0.2 points higher ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
47.2% 4.4% Harris +1.2%: 538 [2] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 48.0%: 46.8% 5.2% Harris +1.2%: Cook Political Report [3] through November 4, 2024
This year, thanks to her stronger standing in state polls than in national ones, our forecast thinks Harris needs to win the national popular vote by only about 2.1 points in order to be favored ...
The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [69] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks. The latest polls from the New York Times /Siena College have Harris ahead by 3 points, at 49 percent and ...