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An ensemble forecast therefore provides a prior estimate of state-dependent predictability, i.e. an estimate of the types of weather that might occur, given inevitable uncertainties in the forecast initial conditions and in the accuracy of the computational representation of the equations.
Spectral density of Wishart-Laguerre ensemble with dimensions (8, 15). A reconstruction of Figure 1 of [7]. The Wishart distribution can be characterized by its probability density function as follows: Let X be a p × p symmetric matrix of random variables that is positive semi-definite. Let V be a (fixed) symmetric positive definite matrix of ...
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo implementation of the Bayesian update problem: given a probability density function (PDF) of the state of the modeled system (the prior, called often the forecast in geosciences) and the data likelihood, Bayes' theorem is used to obtain the PDF after the data likelihood has been taken into account (the posterior, often called the analysis).
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The convergence of a regular estimator's distribution is, in a sense, locally uniform. This is often considered desirable and leads to the convenient property that a small change in the parameter does not dramatically change the distribution of the estimator.
The generic version is called the optimal Bayesian estimator, [1] which is the theoretical underpinning for every sequential estimator (but cannot be instantiated directly). It includes a Markov process for the state propagation and measurement process for each state, which yields some typical statistical independence relations.
Ridge regression is a method of estimating the coefficients of multiple-regression models in scenarios where the independent variables are highly correlated. [1] It has been used in many fields including econometrics, chemistry, and engineering. [2]
The Bayes optimal classifier is a classification technique. It is an ensemble of all the hypotheses in the hypothesis space. On average, no other ensemble can outperform it. [18] The Naive Bayes classifier is a version of this that assumes that the data is conditionally independent on the class and makes the computation more feasible. Each ...