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The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009. On 6 April 2010, Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour ...
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present. The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is ...
Electoral Calculus sees the Tory Parties majority narrow going into the weekend. This weekend’s YouGov opinion will be telling…
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Polling guru John Curtice gives his views on Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer’s chances in the general election on 4 July
Psephology (/ s ɪ ˈ f ɒ l ə dʒ i /; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the study of elections and voting. [1] Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results. The term is more common in Britain and in those English-speaking communities that rely heavily on the British standard of the language. [citation needed]
At the Scottish independence referendum, the site was credited by FiveThirtyEight with the most accurate regional prediction. [ 8 ] Prior to the United Kingdom general election, 2017 , Number Cruncher Politics published an analysis by Singh suggesting that "based on historical accuracy, leader ratings and local election results, the likeliest ...