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The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect [2] or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case). [3]
The following are forms of extension neglect: Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect, the tendency to ignore general information and focus on information only pertaining to the specific case, even when the general information is more important. [47]
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
The base rate fallacy describes how people do not take the base rate of an event into account when solving probability problems. [12] This was explicitly tested by Dawes, Mirels, Gold and Donahue (1993) who had people judge both the base rate of people who had a particular personality trait and the probability that a person who had a given ...
In another example of near-total neglect of probability, Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) found that the typical subject was willing to pay $10 to avoid a 99% chance of a painful electric shock, and $7 to avoid a 1% chance of the same shock. They suggest that probability is more likely to be neglected when the outcomes are emotion-arousing.
In some cases, Zeldin was paid even when the articles never saw the light of day. His disclosures list two op-eds that were never published, for which he received $10,000 and $30,000. In total ...
Most people enter military service “with the fundamental sense that they are good people and that they are doing this for good purposes, on the side of freedom and country and God,” said Dr. Wayne Jonas, a military physician for 24 years and president and CEO of the Samueli Institute, a non-profit health research organization.
The example in the first paragraph tries to illustrate the base rate fallacy, but actually does so by falling prey to the base rate fallacy: "However, there are far more salespeople than librarians overall - hence making it more likely that their friend is actually a salesperson, even if a greater proportion of librarians fit the description of ...