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  2. Fixed-odds betting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-odds_betting

    In making a bet where the expected value is positive, one is said to be getting "the best of it". For example, if one were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (one could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, one would be getting "the best of it" and should always make the bet (assuming a rational and risk-neutral attitude with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion or the ...

  3. Nate Silver - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

    Their final prediction on November 8, 2016, gave Clinton a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [89] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.

  4. Confidence and prediction bands - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_prediction...

    Confidence bands can be constructed around estimates of the empirical distribution function.Simple theory allows the construction of point-wise confidence intervals, but it is also possible to construct a simultaneous confidence band for the cumulative distribution function as a whole by inverting the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, or by using non-parametric likelihood methods.

  5. 50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/people-share-70-things-believe...

    "The future is now, old man." The post 50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality first appeared on Bored Panda.

  6. Positive and negative predictive values - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_and_negative...

    The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.

  7. FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

    The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [69] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.

  8. Accuracy paradox - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_paradox

    Even though the accuracy is ⁠ 10 + 999000 / 1000000 ⁠ ≈ 99.9%, 990 out of the 1000 positive predictions are incorrect. The precision of ⁠ 10 / 10 + 990 ⁠ = 1% reveals its poor performance. As the classes are so unbalanced, a better metric is the F1 score = ⁠ 2 × 0.01 × 1 / 0.01 + 1 ⁠ ≈ 2% (the recall being ⁠ 10 + 0 / 10 ...

  9. Kelly criterion - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

    Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.

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