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If short-term interest rates were expected to fall in a contango market, this would narrow the spread between a futures contract and an underlying asset in good supply. . This is because the cost of carry will fall due to the lower interest rate, which in turn results in the difference between the price of the future and the underlying growing smaller (i.e. narrow
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The cost of carry or carrying charge is the cost of holding a security or a physical commodity over a period of time. The carrying charge includes insurance , storage and interest on the invested funds as well as other incidental costs.
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The carry of an asset is the return obtained from holding it (if positive), or the cost of holding it (if negative) (see also Cost of carry). [1] For instance, commodities are usually negative carry assets, as they incur storage costs or may suffer from depreciation. (Imagine corn or wheat sitting in a silo somewhere, not being sold or eaten.)
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It describes the relationship between the spot and forward price of the underlying asset in a forward contract. While the overall effect can be described as the cost of carry, this effect can be broken down into different components, specifically whether the asset: pays income, and if so whether this is on a discrete or continuous basis