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  2. Bayes' theorem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

    Bayes' theorem applied to an event space generated by continuous random variables X and Y with known probability distributions. There exists an instance of Bayes' theorem for each point in the domain. In practice, these instances might be parametrized by writing the specified probability densities as a function of x and y.

  3. Bayesian inference - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

    Bayesian inference (/ ˈ b eɪ z i ə n / BAY-zee-ən or / ˈ b eɪ ʒ ən / BAY-zhən) [1] is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to calculate a probability of a hypothesis, given prior evidence, and update it as more information becomes available.

  4. Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

    Thus the Bayes factor consists of the ratios ⁠ 1 / 2 ⁠ : 1 : 0 or equivalently 1 : 2 : 0, while the prior odds were 1 : 1 : 1. Thus, the posterior odds become equal to the Bayes factor 1 : 2 : 0. Given that the host opened door 3, the probability that the car is behind door 3 is zero, and it is twice as likely to be behind door 2 than door 1.

  5. Principle of maximum entropy - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_maximum_entropy

    Giffin and Caticha (2007) state that Bayes' theorem and the principle of maximum entropy are completely compatible and can be seen as special cases of the "method of maximum relative entropy". They state that this method reproduces every aspect of orthodox Bayesian inference methods.

  6. Statistical proof - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_proof

    Bayesian statistics are based on a different philosophical approach for proof of inference.The mathematical formula for Bayes's theorem is: [|] = [|] [] []The formula is read as the probability of the parameter (or hypothesis =h, as used in the notation on axioms) “given” the data (or empirical observation), where the horizontal bar refers to "given".

  7. An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Essay_towards_solving_a...

    Bayes's preliminary results in conditional probability (especially Propositions 3, 4 and 5) imply the truth of the theorem that is named for him. He states:"If there be two subsequent events, the probability of the second b/N and the probability of both together P/N, and it being first discovered that the second event has also happened, from ...

  8. Conditional probability - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

    A geometric visualization of Bayes' theorem. In the table, the values 2, 3, 6 and 9 give the relative weights of each corresponding condition and case. The figures denote the cells of the table involved in each metric, the probability being the fraction of each figure that is shaded.

  9. Sunrise problem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunrise_problem

    To find the conditional probability distribution of p given the data, one uses Bayes' theorem, which some call the Bayes–Laplace rule. Having found the conditional probability distribution of p given the data, one may then calculate the conditional probability, given the data, that the sun will rise tomorrow.