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  2. Box–Jenkins method - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Box–Jenkins_method

    The original model uses an iterative three-stage modeling approach: Model identification and model selection: making sure that the variables are stationary, identifying seasonality in the dependent series (seasonally differencing it if necessary), and using plots of the autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) functions of the dependent time series to decide which (if any ...

  3. Tracking signal - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracking_signal

    The tracking signal is then used as the value of the smoothing constant for the next forecast. The idea is that when the tracking signal is large, it suggests that the time series has undergone a shift; a larger value of the smoothing constant should be more responsive to a sudden shift in the underlying signal. [3]

  4. Forecast error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast_error

    If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so.

  5. Partial autocorrelation function - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_autocorrelation...

    Partial autocorrelation function of Lake Huron's depth with confidence interval (in blue, plotted around 0). In time series analysis, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) gives the partial correlation of a stationary time series with its own lagged values, regressed the values of the time series at all shorter lags.

  6. Mean squared prediction error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_prediction_error

    Download QR code; Print/export Download as PDF; Printable version; In other projects ... Second, as time goes on more data may become available to the data analyst ...

  7. Time series - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_series

    If the answer is the time data field, then this is a time series data set candidate. If determining a unique record requires a time data field and an additional identifier which is unrelated to time (e.g. student ID, stock symbol, country code), then it is panel data candidate.

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  9. Exponential smoothing - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_smoothing

    Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned ...

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