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Scenario analysis can also be used to illuminate "wild cards." For example, analysis of the possibility of the earth being struck by a meteor suggests that whilst the probability is low, the damage inflicted is so high that the event is much more important (threatening) than the low probability (in any one year) alone would suggest.
The scenario approach or scenario optimization approach is a technique for obtaining solutions to robust optimization and chance-constrained optimization problems based on a sample of the constraints. It also relates to inductive reasoning in modeling and decision-making.
Less widely found is best-case performance, but it does have uses: for example, where the best cases of individual tasks are known, they can be used to improve the accuracy of an overall worst-case analysis. Computer scientists use probabilistic analysis techniques, especially expected value, to determine expected running times.
The definition of a worst-case scenario varies by the field to which it is being applied. For example, in environmental engineering", "[a] worst-case scenario is defined as the release of the largest quantity of a regulated substance from a single vessel or process line failure that results in the greatest distance to an endpoint". [5]
Layers of protection analysis (LOPA) is a technique for evaluating the hazards, risks and layers of protection associated with a system, such as a chemical process plant. . In terms of complexity and rigour LOPA lies between qualitative techniques such as hazard and operability studies (HAZOP) and quantitative techniques such as fault trees and event trees.
Performing a probabilistic risk assessment starts with a set of initiating events that change the state or configuration of the system. [3] An initiating event is an event that starts a reaction, such as the way a spark (initiating event) can start a fire that could lead to other events (intermediate events) such as a tree burning down, and then finally an outcome, for example, the burnt tree ...
The analysis of the former and the latter algorithm shows that it takes at most log 2 n and n check steps, respectively, for a list of size n. In the depicted example list of size 33, searching for "Morin, Arthur" takes 5 and 28 steps with binary (shown in cyan) and linear (magenta) search, respectively.
Arthur, W. Brian “Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality”, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 84,406-411, 1994. Bolton, Katok, Zwick 1998, "Dictator game giving: Rules of fairness versus acts of kindness" International Journal of Game Theory, Volume 27, Number 2