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An order-of-magnitude estimate is prepared when little or no design information is available for the project. It is called order of magnitude because that may be all that can be determined at an early stage. In other words, perhaps we can only determine that it is of a 10,000,000 magnitude as opposed to a 1,000,000 magnitude.
Thus one will expect to be within 1 ⁄ 8 to 8 times the correct value – within an order of magnitude, and much less than the worst case of erring by a factor of 2 9 = 512 (about 2.71 orders of magnitude). If one has a shorter chain or estimates more accurately, the overall estimate will be correspondingly better.
Order of magnitude is a concept used to discuss the scale of numbers in relation to one another. Two numbers are "within an order of magnitude" of each other if their ratio is between 1/10 and 10. In other words, the two numbers are within about a factor of 10 of each other. [1] For example, 1 and 1.02 are within an order of magnitude.
A back-of-the-envelope calculation is a rough calculation, typically jotted down on any available scrap of paper such as an envelope. It is more than a guess but less than an accurate calculation or mathematical proof. The defining characteristic of back-of-the-envelope calculations is the use of simplified assumptions.
Scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) is an American English slang term meaning a rough estimate made by an expert in the field, based on experience and intuition. It is similar to the slang word guesstimate , a portmanteau of guess and estimate .
To help compare different orders of magnitude, this section lists lengths between 10 −15 meters and 10 −14 meters (1 femtometer and 10 fm). 1 fm – diameter of a neutron , approximate range-limit of the color force carried between quarks by gluons [ 6 ] [ 7 ]
This is an accepted version of this page This is the latest accepted revision, reviewed on 17 January 2025. Observation that in many real-life datasets, the leading digit is likely to be small For the unrelated adage, see Benford's law of controversy. The distribution of first digits, according to Benford's law. Each bar represents a digit, and the height of the bar is the percentage of ...
20×10 15: roughly the hardware-equivalent of the human brain according to Ray Kurzweil. Published in his 1999 book: The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence [11] 33.86×10 15: Tianhe-2's LINPACK performance, June 2013 [10] 36.8×10 15: 2001 estimate of computational power required to simulate a human brain in ...