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For his general election projections for each state, in addition to relying on the available polls in a given state and "similar states", Silver estimated a "538 regression" using historical voting information along with demographic characteristics of the states to create an estimate that he treated as a separate poll (equivalent to the ...
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball and elections.He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News until May 2023. [2]
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
đź“Šatlas poll - u.s. presidential elections Trump maintains a 1.9% lead in the national popular vote, while Kamala Harris's support numbers have remained virtually unchanged since her candidacy ...
Propensity scores for sample inclusion are estimated using a logistic regression. The predictors in the propensity score model include the demographics described above (age, race, gender, and education) plus marital status, number of children, household ownership, frequency of internet use, interest in politics, and past voting behavior.
270toWin is an American political website that projects who will win United States presidential, House of Representatives, Senate, and gubernatorial elections and allows users to create their electoral maps. [3] It also tracks the results of United States presidential elections by state throughout the country's history.
It is five days until Election Day and the presidential polls still show that it is anyone's race. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump make their final pushes on the ...
Live election results and related data for Senate, House and governor’s races. Senate Outlook 2014 Forecasts for 2014’s Senate races, based on HuffPost Pollster’s poll-tracking model.