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The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess ...
Morgan Stanley analyst Lee Simpson has a target price on Arm of $175 per share, which implies 28% upside from its current share price of $137. That would give the company a market value of $183 ...
Amazon is currently worth $2.3 trillion. The stock price would need to reach $362 per share (about 65% upside as of Dec. 31) for its market value to reach $3.8 trillion. ... the first prediction ...
They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. [1] The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A typical prediction market contract is set up to trade between 0 and 100%.
[2] [4] In June 2017, the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions. [8] The Metaculus Prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules. [9] In 2021, Metaculus received an Effective altruism infrastructure fund grant ...
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. [1] Augur is developed by Forecast Foundation, which was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson, Joey Krug, and Jeremy Gardner. [2] Forecast Foundation is advised by Ron Bernstein, founder of now-defunct company Intrade, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin. [3]
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. [1] [2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana', as well as 'Sweepcash,' which can be withdrawn for real money, or donated to charity. [3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the ...
The generalized second-price auction (GSP) is a non-truthful auction mechanism for multiple items. Each bidder places a bid. The highest bidder gets the first slot, the second-highest, the second slot and so on, but the highest bidder pays the price bid by the second-highest bidder, the second-highest pays the price bid by the third-highest, and so on.