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Vector autoregression (VAR) is a statistical model used to capture the relationship between multiple quantities as they change over time. VAR is a type of stochastic process model. VAR models generalize the single-variable (univariate) autoregressive model by allowing for multivariate time series .
In econometrics and other applications of multivariate time series analysis, ... of a vector autoregression ... to the other variables in the autoregression. It ...
Together with the moving-average (MA) model, it is a special case and key component of the more general autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure; it is also a special case of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which ...
For higher-order autoregressive processes, the sample autocorrelation needs to be supplemented with a partial autocorrelation plot. The partial autocorrelation of an AR( p ) process becomes zero at lag p + 1 and greater, so we examine the sample partial autocorrelation function to see if there is evidence of a departure from zero.
In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models are a way to describe a (weakly) stationary stochastic process using autoregression (AR) and a moving average (MA), each with a polynomial. They are a tool for understanding a series and predicting future values.
If both are I(0), standard regression analysis will be valid. If they are integrated of a different order, e.g. one being I(1) and the other being I(0), one has to transform the model. If they are both integrated to the same order (commonly I(1)), we can estimate an ECM model of the form
Vector autoregressions are flexible statistical models that typically include many free parameters. Given the limited length of standard macroeconomic datasets relative to the vast number of parameters available, Bayesian methods have become an increasingly popular way of dealing with the problem of over-parameterization .
In time series analysis used in statistics and econometrics, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models are generalizations of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to non-stationary series and periodic variation, respectively.