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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
Tail risk is then the chance of a loss occurring due to such events. These tail events are often referred to as black swan events and they can produce disastrous effects on the returns of the portfolio in a very short span of time. Fat tails suggest that the likelihood of such events is in fact greater than the one predicted by traditional ...
He argues the current, relatively stable economy is “not inconsistent” with the lagged effects of the Fed’s tightening. “It takes time for the higher cost of debt to make its way into the ...
The hedge fund veteran said the market will continue to see “pure euphoria” in the short term but will exit the Goldilocks zone toward the end of the year.
Nassim Taleb, who wrote the book The Black Swan about unpredictable events, is worried about the role of the U.S. dollar in global finance.. It stems from Western sanctions that froze Russian ...
A Black Swan fund is an investment fund based on the black swan theory that seek to reap big rewards from sharp market downturns. They became more known after the financial crisis of 2007–2008 . One example of a "Black Swan" fund is Universa, which was founded by Mark Spitznagel and advised by Nicholas Taleb .
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.