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The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, in financial analysis, is a method used to value a security, project, company, or asset, that incorporates the time value of money. Discounted cash flow analysis is widely used in investment finance, real estate development , corporate financial management, and patent valuation .
Project Appraisal Using Discounted Cash Flow; T. Keck, E. Levengood, and A. Longfield (1998). Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis in an International Setting: A Survey of Issues in Modeling the Cost of Capital, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Fall, pp. 82–99. Eric Kirzner (2006) Selected Moments in the History of Discounted Present Value.
For a valuation using the discounted cash flow method, one first estimates the future cash flows from the investment and then estimates a reasonable discount rate after considering the riskiness of those cash flows and interest rates in the capital markets. Next, one makes a calculation to compute the present value of the future cash flows.
A valuation multiple [1] is simply an expression of market value of an asset relative to a key statistic that is assumed to relate to that value. To be useful, that statistic – whether earnings, cash flow or some other measure – must bear a logical relationship to the market value observed; to be seen, in fact, as the driver of that market value.
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The cash flows and exit price are then discounted using the investor’s required return, and the sum of these is the value of the business under the scenario in question. Finally, each of the three scenario-values are multiplied through by a probability corresponding to each scenario (as estimated by the investor).
As can be seen, the residual income valuation formula is similar to the dividend discount model (DDM) (and to other discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation models), substituting future residual earnings for dividend (or free cash) payments (and the cost of equity for the weighted average cost of capital).
Fig. 1 Typical project cash flow with uncertainty. The mathematical equation for the DM Method is shown below. The method captures the real option value by discounting the distribution of operating profits at R, the market risk rate, and discounting the distribution of the discretionary investment at r, risk-free rate, before the expected payoff is calculated.