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[538 30] Following a number of preview posts in January [538 31] and February, [538 32] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry [538 33] [538 34] [538 35] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats, [538 36] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman [b] developed a seat projection model.
One question that we sometimes get is whether polling averages like 538's are biased toward Trump because of the influx of polls conducted by Republican-aligned firms. Over the past two weeks, 23 ...
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
Rasmussen has been questioned for its methodology and for an apparent bias toward the Republican Party. In 2024, 538 dropped Rasmussen from its polling averages and analysis, saying Rasmussen failed to meet 538 ' s standards for pollsters. [7]
The trouble with polling bias. ... FiveThirtyEight provides a useful ranking of over 300 pollsters, based on their transparency and previous accuracy. The polls are calling — is anybody home?
538 appears to be the most comprehensive analysis of polling and uses more metrics than simply bias and accuracy. Being owned by a WP:RS (ABC) also helps. Silver's analysis is a blog post focusing on fewer pollsters with fewer variables, not a comprehensive updated ranking.
Polls before the Nov. 5 vote had shown Trump trailing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point, according to an average of dozens of national opinion polls compiled by 538, a ...
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]