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A calculus of voting represents a hypothesized decision-making process. These models are used in political science in an attempt to capture the relative importance of various factors influencing an elector to vote (or not vote) in a particular way.
The most common example of a spatial model is a political spectrum or compass, such as the traditional left-right axis, [2] but issue spaces can be more complex. For example, a study of German voters found at least four dimensions were required to adequately represent all political parties.
Psephology (/ s ɪ ˈ f ɒ l ə dʒ i /; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the study of elections and voting. [1] Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results.
Electoral geography is the analysis of the methods, the behavior, and the results of elections in the context of geographic space and using geographical techniques. . Specifically, it is an examination of the dual interaction in which geographical affect the political decisions, and the geographical structure of the election system affects electora
As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, noted that"(f)or ten years, from 1771 onwards, Charles Fox betted frequently, largely, and judiciously, on the social and political occurrences of the time."
Examples of subjects where election science methods are applied include gerrymandering, electoral fraud, suffrage, and voter registration. There is an academic conference [4] dedicated to the study of election science and the Southern Political Science Association has a sub-conference for the study of election science. [5]
The Gallagher index measures an electoral system's relative disproportionality between votes received and seats in a legislature. [1] [2] As such, it measures the difference between the percentage of votes each party gets and the percentage of seats each party gets in the resulting legislature, and it also measures this disproportionality from all parties collectively in any one given election.
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).