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Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls were either declared candidates, former candidates, or received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
On May 30, 2008, Poblano revealed his identity to FiveThirtyEight.com readers. [32] On June 1, 2008, Silver published a two-page op-ed in the New York Post outlining the rationale underlying his focus on the statistical aspects of politics. [33] He first appeared on national television on CNN's American Morning on June 13, 2008. [34]
Senate. Chance each party controls Senate. Dem 50/50 Split GOP; 71%: 22%: 7%: See full calculations »
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016. The general election occurred on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The general election occurred on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.
The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris over Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned his model doesn’t care about the national polls as much at this stage.