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Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results.
A global forecast model is a weather forecasting model which initializes and forecasts the weather throughout the Earth's troposphere. It is a computer program that produces meteorological information for future times at given locations and altitudes.
Most of the above track models (except CLIPER) require data from global weather models, such as the GFS, which produce output about four hours after the synoptic times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 Universal Coordinated Time (UTC). For half of their forecasts, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models ...
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model [1] (/ ˈ w ɔːr f /) is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. NWP refers to the simulation and prediction of the atmosphere with a computer model, and WRF is a set of software for this.
Research has been growing significantly since the 2010s, and weather-drone data may in future be added to numerical weather models. [45] [46] Modern weather predictions aid in timely evacuations and potentially save lives and prevent property damage. Commerce provides pilot reports along aircraft routes, [47] and ship reports along shipping routes.
The Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) is a global numerical weather prediction computer simulation run by the United States Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. This mathematical model is run four times a day and produces weather forecasts .
Top: Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of Hurricane Rita tracks. Bottom: The spread of National Hurricane Center multi-model ensemble forecast. Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced.