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The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment ), decision scientist Barbara Mellers , and Don Moore , all professors at the University of Pennsylvania .
Superforecasters "were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness". In the Good Judgment Project, the superforecasters "scored higher on both intelligence and political knowledge than the already well-above-average group of forecasters" who were taking part in the tournament. [22]
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.
Predictions for the new year …. January. 12 — South Florida Fair opens in suburban West Palm Beach. Yesteryear Village debuts 1990s-era Blockbuster Video store. 23 — Gov. Ron DeSantis ...
A father-daughter duo has decoded an alien-like signal beamed from a spacecraft in 2023. Now, citizen scientists are trying to interpret the cosmic puzzle.
Here are our predictions for how the inaugural 12-team playoff will unfold. Ross Dellenger. ... Good Morning America. New federal rule bans 'junk fees' on hotels, live-event tickets. Food.
The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al. [12] (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament) [7] ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).