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The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
These are just a few examples proving that no one is safe from experiencing overconfidence bias, just like these people on this list. #16 The Amount Of Likes Is Scary Image credits: EvelKros
Has been shown to affect various important economic decisions, for example, a choice of car insurance or electrical service. [32] Overconfidence effect: Tendency to overly trust one's own capability to make correct decisions. People tended to overrate their abilities and skills as decision makers. [33] See also the Dunning–Kruger effect.
Ambiguity effect; Assembly bonus effect; Audience effect; Baader–Meinhof effect; Barnum effect; Bezold effect; Birthday-number effect; Boomerang effect; Bouba/kiki effect
Overconfidence is a very serious problem, but you probably think it doesn't affect you. That's the tricky thing with overconfidence: The people who are most overconfident are the ones least likely ...
Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed is a book by James C. Scott critical of a system of beliefs he calls high modernism, that centers on governments' overconfidence in the ability to design and operate society in accordance with purported scientific laws. [1] [2] [3]
Why You Need to Do Your Research There are other takeaways from this study and others that can have a bearing on how you interpret professional advice and whether or not to act on it. For example:
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