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Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as "black swans"—undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 11, 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events. [2]: prologue
The negativity bias, [1] also known as the negativity effect, is a cognitive bias that, even when positive or neutral things of equal intensity occur, things of a more negative nature (e.g. unpleasant thoughts, emotions, or social interactions; harmful/traumatic events) have a greater effect on one's psychological state and processes than neutral or positive things.
This can involve making a change in our behavior immediately after the negative event occurred. By actively making a behavioral change, we are completely avoiding the problem again in the future. An example is forgetting Mother's Day, and immediately writing the date on the calendar for the following year, to avoid the problem.
Hindsight bias is more likely to occur when the outcome of an event is negative rather than positive. [14] This is a phenomenon consistent with the general tendency for people to pay more attention to negative outcomes of events than positive outcomes. [15] In addition, hindsight bias is affected by the severity of the negative outcome.
The tendency of people to remember past experiences in a positive light, while overlooking negative experiences associated with that event. Fading affect bias A bias in which the emotion associated with unpleasant memories fades more quickly than the emotion associated with positive events.
Modelling of the items of the ASQ suggests that the positive and negative event information (e.g. getting a promotion, losing a job) and the causal nature of attributions – whether events are seen as global or local in scope, or as temporally stable or unstable, for instance – assess distinct factors.
Another example of attributional bias is optimism bias in which most people believe positive events happen to them more often than to others and that negative events happen to them less often than to others. For example, smokers on average believe they are less likely to get lung cancer than other smokers.
Optimism bias is typically measured through two determinants of risk: absolute risk, where individuals are asked to estimate their likelihood of experiencing a negative event compared to their actual chance of experiencing a negative event (comparison against self), and comparative risk, where individuals are asked to estimate the likelihood of experiencing a negative event (their personal ...