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  2. Plausible reasoning - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plausible_reasoning

    Plausible reasoning is defeasible. Plausible reasoning is based on the way things generally go in familiar situations. Plausible reasoning can be used to fill in implicit premises in incomplete arguments. Plausible reasoning is commonly based on appearances from perception. Stability is an important characteristic of plausible reasoning.

  3. Causal analysis - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_analysis

    Causal analysis is the field of experimental design and statistics pertaining to establishing cause and effect. [1] Typically it involves establishing four elements: correlation, sequence in time (that is, causes must occur before their proposed effect), a plausible physical or information-theoretical mechanism for an observed effect to follow from a possible cause, and eliminating the ...

  4. Conjunction fallacy - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy

    In some experimental demonstrations, the conjoint option is evaluated separately from its basic option. In other words, one group of participants is asked to rank-order the likelihood that Linda is a bank teller, a high school teacher, and several other options, and another group is asked to rank-order whether Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement versus the same set of ...

  5. Causal inference - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_inference

    Causal inference is the process of determining the independent, actual effect of a particular phenomenon that is a component of a larger system. The main difference between causal inference and inference of association is that causal inference analyzes the response of an effect variable when a cause of the effect variable is changed.

  6. The best-case scenario for the economy has become more plausible

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  7. Problems with economic models - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problems_with_economic_models

    Decisions based on economic theories that are not scientifically possible to test can give people a false sense of precision, and that could be misleading, leading to build up logical errors. Natural economics: Economics is concerned with both 'normal' and 'abnormal' economic conditions. In an objective scientific study one is not restricted by ...

  8. What is the debt ceiling, and is Trump right that a default ...

    www.aol.com/debt-ceiling-trump-default-could...

    In 2023, Moody's Analytics estimated that a protracted breach of the debt ceiling would cause comparable effects to the 2008 economic crisis. It said it could cost the economy more than 7 million ...

  9. NYT ‘Connections’ Hints and Answers Today, Monday, January 13

    www.aol.com/nyt-connections-hints-answers-today...

    If you've been having trouble with any of the connections or words in Monday's puzzle, you're not alone and these hints should definitely help you out. Plus, I'll reveal the answers further down ...