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In 1969 Russell devised the Primary Trend Index, composed of eight market indicators that he never publicly divulged as his own secret recipe. When his index outperformed an 89-day moving average, it was time to buy. When it underperformed the 89-day moving average, a bear market was at hand.
In finance, MIDAS (an acronym for Market Interpretation/Data Analysis System) is an approach to technical analysis initiated in 1995 by the physicist and technical analyst Paul Levine, PhD, [1] and subsequently developed by Andrew Coles, PhD, and David Hawkins in a series of articles [2] and the book MIDAS Technical Analysis: A VWAP Approach to Trading and Investing in Today's Markets. [3]
Technical indicators are a fundamental part of technical analysis and are typically plotted as a chart pattern to try to predict the market trend. [2] Indicators generally overlay on price chart data to indicate where the price is going, or whether the price is in an "overbought" condition or an "oversold" condition.
Volume is also a useful metric for determining the liquidity of an asset. [6] Liquidity is a measure of how easily an asset can be bought or sold without dramatically affecting the asset's price. Therefore, a market for a security in which there are many buyers and sellers would feature a large volume and thus high liquidity. [5] [6]
A mathematically precise set of criteria were tested by first using a definition of a short-term trend by smoothing the data and allowing for one deviation in the smoothed trend. They then considered eight major three-day candlestick reversal patterns in a non-parametric manner and defined the patterns as a set of inequalities.
Although some traders use Fosback's NVI and PVI to analyze individual stocks, the indicators were created to track, and have been tested, on major market indexes. NVI was Dysart's most invaluable breadth index, and Fosback found that his version of “the Negative Volume Index is an excellent indicator of the primary market trend.”
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The indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become established. Coppock designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model" [1]) for the S&P 500 index, and it has been applied to similar stock indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average ...