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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
Nicholas stresses therefore the surprising side and unpredictability of the black swan as well as their certainty (or unavoidability). Another concept that comes close to the concept of wild cards and black swans is the tipping point of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point, which actually is a special form of a wild card that realizes itself by ...
A business plan is a formal written document containing the goals of a business, the methods for attaining those goals, ... Templates [3] and guides, ...
Taleb criticized risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the Black Monday (1987) and the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [6] He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events. [7]
The hedge fund veteran said the market will continue to see “pure euphoria” in the short term but will exit the Goldilocks zone toward the end of the year.
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
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