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Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
The soonest virtual impactor of an asteroid larger than 50 meters in diameter with a better than 1:1-million chance of impact is 2022 PX 1 on 11 August 2040 with a 1: 330 000 chance of impact. [8] It is estimated to be 120-meters in diameter, has a short observation arc of 3.1-days, and is expected to be 1.78 AU (266 million km ) from Earth on ...
The table shows that for bodies in the asteroid albedo range, the typical difference between Bond and geometric albedo is 20% or less, with either quantity capable of being larger. Since the calculated temperature varies as ( 1 − A ) 1 4 {\displaystyle (1-A)^{1 \over 4}} , the dependence is fairly weak for typical asteroid A ≈ p ...
The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets.It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value.
99942 Apophis (provisional designation 2004 MN 4) is a near-Earth asteroid and a potentially hazardous object, 450 metres (1,480 ft) by 170 metres (560 ft) in size, [3] that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 when initial observations indicated a probability of 2.7% that it would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.
(7482) 1994 PC 1 is a stony asteroid and near-Earth object, currently estimated to be the most potentially hazardous asteroid over the next 1000 years. [6] [7] It is in the Apollo group, approximately 1.1 kilometers in diameter. It was discovered on 9 August 1994, by astronomer Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in Coonabarabran ...
The main gaps occur at the 3:1, 5:2, 7:3, and 2:1 mean-motion resonances with Jupiter. An asteroid in the 3:1 Kirkwood gap would orbit the Sun three times for each Jovian orbit, for instance. Weaker resonances occur at other semi-major axis values, with fewer asteroids found than nearby.
1979 XB is a lost asteroid [2] with a short observation arc of 3.9 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It is classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group [3] and is estimated to be 660 meters (2,200 feet) in diameter. [4]