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There are several ways to represent the forecast density depending on the shape of the forecasting distribution. If the forecast density is symmetric ( normal or Student's t , for instance), the fan centers at the mean (which coincides with the mode and median ) forecast, and the ranges expand like confidence intervals by adding and subtracting ...
The Table Linkbase can be used for presentation of XBRL data, and also for data entry, by allowing software to present a template for completion by the user. The Table Linkbase is well-suited to handling large, highly-dimensional reporting templates such as those used for Solvency II reporting to EIOPA, and COREP and FINREP reporting to the EBA.
where a t is the actual value of the quantity being forecast, and f t is the forecast. MAD is the mean absolute deviation. The formula for the MAD is: = | | where n is the number of periods. Plugging this in, the entire formula for tracking signal is:
If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so.
where A t is the actual value and F t is the forecast value. The absolute difference between A t and F t is divided by half the sum of absolute values of the actual value A t and the forecast value F t. The value of this calculation is summed for every fitted point t and divided again by the number of fitted points n.
Download as PDF; Printable version; In other projects ... Percentage forecast accuracy measures such as the Mean ... which uses the actual value from the prior period ...
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where is the actual value of the quantity being forecast, is the forecast, and is the number of different times for which the variable is forecast. Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a ...