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The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". [16]
A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Economic Recessions in the U.S. Recessions are a normal part of the business ...
A recession is coming in the US by early next year, one John Hopkins economist predicts. The economy is flashing a recession signal that's been seen only 4 times in the past century, veteran ...
A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job-vacancy data in addition to unemployment data.
The GDP bottom, or trough, was reached in the second quarter of 2009 (marking the technical end of the recession that is defined by "a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales"). [3]
Informally, a national recession is a period of declining economic output. In a 1974 New York Times article, Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb to identify a recession, which included two successive quarterly declines in gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the nation's output. [8]
Recession indicators are flashing red, but economists argue they could be false signals this economic cycle, revealing a broader truth about the recession predicting business itself.
The 1948 recession was a brief economic downturn; forecasters of the time expected much worse, perhaps influenced by the poor economy in their recent lifetimes. [62] The recession also followed a period of monetary tightening. [40] Recession of 1953: July 1953 – May 1954 10 months 3 years 9 months 6.1% (September 1954) −2.6%