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Today, 538 is unveiling a new polling average for President Donald Trump's job approval rating. Based on the 11 polls released since his inauguration on Jan. 20, Trump's average approval rating ...
3.3.55 Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Joe Manchin as No Labels vs. Jill Stein vs. Lars Mapstead 3.3.56 Jerome Segal vs. Donald Trump 4 Limitations
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
Newsom, considered a rising star in the party, who has stumped for Biden, performed far worse, scoring 36% versus 46%. Whitmer performed similarly poorly, attaining 33% versus Trump’s 45%.
This is a list of opinion polls taken on the presidency of Joe Biden in 2024 and the first twenty days of January 2025. To navigate between years, see opinion polling on the Joe Biden administration .
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump was the underdog, first to Hillary Clinton and then to Joe Biden. In both cases, he outperformed most of his polls. The first time, it was enough to win the Electoral ...
When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist Jim Rutenberg wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized FiveThirtyEight for underestimating Trump's chances. He argued that by giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls in his favor ...
In not-breaking news, the 2024 race for the White House appears very close.Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages ...