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17 May: the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update projected that the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is 66%, though it is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed 1.5 °C. [123]
The following is a list of weather events that occurred on Earth in the year 2023. The year saw a transition from La Niña to El Niño, with record high global average surface temperatures. The several weather events which had a significant impact were blizzards, cold waves, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, floods, tornadoes, and tropical cyclones.
Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on CMIP6 multi-model mean changes. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report defines global mean surface temperature (GMST) as the "estimated global average of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice, and sea surface temperature (SST) over ice-free ocean regions, with changes normally expressed as departures from a ...
The temperature on land rose by 1.59 °C while over the ocean it rose by 0.88 °C. [3] In 2020 the temperature was 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial era. [4] In September 2023 the temperature was 1.75 °C above pre-industrial level and during the entire year of 2023 is expected to be 1.4 °C above it. [5]
The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5 °C is almost half. [87] The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in the early 2030s. [88]
From January to September, the global mean temperature was 1.40 °C higher than the pre-industrial average (1850–1900). [18] January 2023 was the seventh warmest on record – 0.25 °C warmer than the normal but 0.33 °C cooler than January 2020. [19] In July, the global average temperature was 17.32 °C (63.17 °F). [20]
There is good agreement on the overall evolution of global temperatures and year-to-year variability. Dataset anomalies are calculated relative to a 1981 to 2010 baseline and offset by 0.69°C, which is the best estimate difference for that period from the 1850-1900 average given in the IPCC sixth assessment report."
Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. [2]