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The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect [2] or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case). [3]
Base rates are used less if there is relevant individuating information. [18] Groups have been found to neglect base rate more than individuals do. [19] Use of base rates differs based on context. [20] Research on use of base rates has been inconsistent, with some authors suggesting a new model is necessary. [21]
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect, the tendency to ignore general information and focus on information only pertaining to the specific case, even when the general information is more important. [47] Compassion fade, the tendency to behave more compassionately towards a small number of identifiable victims than to a large number of ...
Exemplification theory is a simple combination of these heuristics. It posits that since exemplars come to mind more easily than base-rates when accessing information, available exemplars will dominate base-rate information when making judgments of event populations. [6] Behavioral intentions are the direct determinants of behaviors. [7]
Base rate heuristic: When a decision involves probability this is a mental shortcut that uses relevant data to determine the probability of an outcome occurring. When using this Heuristic there is a common issue where individuals misjudge the likelihood of a situation.
Social heuristics can include heuristics that use social information, operate in social contexts, or both. [11] Examples of social information include information about the behavior of a social entity or the properties of a social system, while nonsocial information is information about something physical.
But assessing covariation can be pulled off track by neglecting base-rate information – how frequently something occurs in general. [28] However people often ignore base rates and tend to use other information presented. There are more sophisticated judgment strategies that result in fewer errors.