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The data for the misery index is obtained from unemployment data published by the U.S. Department of Labor and the Inflation Rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The exact methods used for measuring unemployment and inflation have changed over time, although past data is usually normalized so that past and future metrics are comparable.
A cursory analysis of US inflation and unemployment data from 1953 to 1992 shows no single curve will fit the data, but there are three rough aggregations—1955–71, 1974–84, and 1985–92—each of which shows a general, downwards slope, but at three very different levels with the shifts occurring abruptly.
Since World War II, the United States economy has performed significantly better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth, and corporate profits.
The best study of the inflation-unemployment trade-off finds that an increase in unemployment would reduce inflation by about one-third of 1%. Most other studies are in this ballpark.
Line charts — Accepts up to six datasets. (updated 30 August 2023) Vertical bar charts (column charts) — Accepts up to six datasets. Toggle between clustered and stacked charts; user can adjust "Yfloor"—the Y level (usually=0) from which columns rise or fall; user chooses to keep or ignore negative input values. (updated 27 August 2023)
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, its highest level since November 2021. ... well below the historical average of 100 basis points. ... Economic data: New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations ...
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The cost of low inflation would have been unemployment rates of 14% over the past two years, columnist Michael Hicks writes. Hicks: Everyone hates high inflation. High unemployment would be worse.