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After choosing a box at random and withdrawing one coin at random that happens to be a gold coin, the question is what is the probability that the other coin is gold. As in the Monty Hall problem, the intuitive answer is 1 / 2 , but the probability is actually 2 / 3 .
The selection of one box from the three boxes and the selection of one drawer and its coin of the selected box have already occurred. The question asks what is the probability of an outcome after it has occurred. But the probabilities 1/2 and 2/3 are answers to the question of what is the probability of the outcome before it has occurred.
These questions ask for the probability of two different events, and thus can have different answers, even though both events are causally dependent on the coin landing heads. (This fact is even more obvious when one considers the complementary questions: "what is the probability that two red balls were placed in the box" and "what is the ...
Each scenario has a 1 / 6 probability. The original three prisoners problem can be seen in this light: The warden in that problem still has these six cases, each with a 1 / 6 probability of occurring. However, the warden in the original case cannot reveal the fate of a pardoned prisoner.
In probability theory, the coupon collector's problem refers to mathematical analysis of "collect all coupons and win" contests. It asks the following question: if each box of a given product (e.g., breakfast cereals) contains a coupon, and there are n different types of coupons, what is the probability that more than t boxes need to be bought ...
The practical problem of checking whether a coin is fair might be considered as easily solved by performing a sufficiently large number of trials, but statistics and probability theory can provide guidance on two types of question; specifically those of how many trials to undertake and of the accuracy of an estimate of the probability of ...
Frobenius coin problem with 2-pence and 5-pence coins visualised as graphs: Sloping lines denote graphs of 2x+5y=n where n is the total in pence, and x and y are the non-negative number of 2p and 5p coins, respectively. A point on a line gives a combination of 2p and 5p for its given total (green).
The Bertrand paradox is a problem within the classical interpretation of probability theory. Joseph Bertrand introduced it in his work Calcul des probabilités (1889) [1] as an example to show that the principle of indifference may not produce definite, well-defined results for probabilities if it is applied uncritically when the domain of possibilities is infinite.
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