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One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like ...
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. [1] [2] [3]
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019.
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
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Historically, such predictions have been made for the purpose of diverting attention from actual crises like poverty and war, pushing political agendas, or promoting hatred of certain groups; antisemitism was a popular theme of Christian apocalyptic predictions in medieval times, [5] while French and Lutheran depictions of the apocalypse were ...
Tesla's stock price reached $420 on Wednesday afternoon, which elicited responses from social media users and the company's CEO, Elon Musk. "As foretold in the prophecy," Musk wrote in an X post ...
First edition (publ. Princeton University Press) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock.The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.