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The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts.
The Wideband Delphi estimation method is a consensus-based technique for estimating effort. [1] It derives from the Delphi method which was developed in the 1950-1960s at the RAND Corporation as a forecasting tool. It has since been adapted across many industries to estimate many kinds of tasks, ranging from statistical data collection results ...
The method is a form of structured brainstorming that aims at identifying and packaging secondary and tertiary consequences of trends and events. A trend or event is placed in the middle of a piece of paper and then small spokes are drawn wheel-like from the centre. Primary impacts and consequences are written in circles of the first ring.
Judgment-based methods rely on the opinions and knowledge of people who have considerable experience in the area that the forecast is being conducted. There are two main judgment based methods: [2] Delphi method – The Delphi method involves directing a series of questions to experts. The experts provide their estimates regarding future ...
The basic framework is to think of a Delphi study which is conducted in form of an online questionnaire. However, a Conventional round-based Delphi study conducted via the internet is called "Internet Delphi". The basic difference to Internet Delphi is that the process of a Real-Time Delphi is not characterised by single iterated rounds.
The Delphi method attempts to develop systematically expert opinion consensus concerning future developments and events. It is a judgmental forecasting procedure in the form of an anonymous, written, multi-stage survey process, where feedback of group opinion is provided after each round.
A common method is to "research backwards" in building a questionnaire by first determining the information sought (i.e., Brand A is more/less preferred by x% of the sample vs. Brand B, and y% vs. Brand C), then being certain to ask all the needed questions to obtain the metrics for the report. Unneeded questions should be avoided, as they are ...
Planning poker is a variation of the Wideband delphi method. It is most commonly used in agile software development , in particular in Scrum and Extreme Programming . Agile software development methods recommend the use of Planning Poker for estimating the size of user stories and developing release and iteration plans.