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The mythological Judgement of Paris required selecting from three incomparable alternatives (the goddesses shown).. Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability, economics, and analytic philosophy that uses the tools of expected utility and probability to model how individuals would behave rationally under uncertainty.
Introduction to statistical decision theory. Author: John W. Pratt, Howard Raiffa, and Robert Schlaifer Publication data: preliminary edition, 1965. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1995. Description: Extensive exposition of statistical decision theory, statistics, and decision analysis from a Bayesian standpoint. Many examples and problems come ...
Decision is a peer-reviewed academic journal covering research about decision making within the boundaries of an organization, as well as decisions involving inter-firm coordination. According to the 2023 Journal Citation Reports , Decision Sciences has an impact factor of 1.5, placing it in the third quartile (286/401) of journals in the ...
An optimal decision is a decision that leads to at least as good a known or expected outcome as all other available decision options. It is an important concept in decision theory . In order to compare the different decision outcomes, one commonly assigns a utility value to each of them.
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. . Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the ...
In this example a company should prefer product B's risk and payoffs under realistic risk preference coefficients. Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) or multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a sub-discipline of operations research that explicitly evaluates multiple conflicting criteria in decision making (both in daily life and in settings such as business, government and medicine).
Causal decision theory (CDT) is a school of thought within decision theory which states that, when a rational agent is confronted with a set of possible actions, one should select the action which causes the best outcome in expectation.
With the establishment of modern decision theory in the 1950s, the model became a key ingredient in the formulation of non-probabilistic decision-making models in the face of severe uncertainty. [ 4 ] [ 5 ] It is widely used in diverse fields such as decision theory , control theory , economics , statistics , robust optimization , operations ...