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  2. Orders of magnitude (probability) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude...

    2.1×10 −2: Probability of being dealt a three of a kind in poker 2.3×10 −2: Gaussian distribution: probability of a value being more than 2 standard deviations from the mean on a specific side [17] 2.7×10 −2: Probability of winning any prize in the Powerball with one ticket in 2006 3.3×10 −2: Probability of a human giving birth to ...

  3. Problem of points - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_points

    The problem of points, also called the problem of division of the stakes, is a classical problem in probability theory.One of the famous problems that motivated the beginnings of modern probability theory in the 17th century, it led Blaise Pascal to the first explicit reasoning about what today is known as an expected value.

  4. Reference class problem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_problem

    In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case.. For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, we could refer to the frequency of crashes among various different sets of aircraft: all aircraft, this make of aircraft, aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years ...

  5. Boy or girl paradox - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

    The Boy or Girl paradox surrounds a set of questions in probability theory, which are also known as The Two Child Problem, [1] Mr. Smith's Children [2] and the Mrs. Smith Problem. The initial formulation of the question dates back to at least 1959, when Martin Gardner featured it in his October 1959 "Mathematical Games column" in Scientific ...

  6. Probability - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

    Probability is the branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an event is to occur. [note 1] [1] [2] This number is often expressed as a percentage (%), ranging from 0% to ...

  7. Urn problem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urn_problem

    In probability and statistics, an urn problem is an idealized mental exercise in which some objects of real interest (such as atoms, people, cars, etc.) are represented as colored balls in an urn or other container. One pretends to remove one or more balls from the urn; the goal is to determine the probability of drawing one color or another ...

  8. Chain rule (probability) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chain_rule_(probability)

    In probability theory, the chain rule [1] (also called the general product rule [2] [3]) describes how to calculate the probability of the intersection of, not necessarily independent, events or the joint distribution of random variables respectively, using conditional probabilities.

  9. Bayes' theorem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

    Assuming the incidence rate of pancreatic cancer is 1/100000, while 10/99999 healthy individuals have the same symptoms worldwide, the probability of having pancreatic cancer given the symptoms is 9.1%, and the other 90.9% could be "false positives" (that is, falsely said to have cancer; "positive" is a confusing term when, as here, the test ...

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